Let me pose a scenario about our policy in the Middle East. Let us suppose the U.S. government decided that enough was enough and totally withdrew all military presence in the Middle East. What proponents of the war here fear most is that this would allow ISIL to increase (start) terrorist activities in the U.S. because they hate us so much for killing so many of their countrymen that all they want is revenge.
Let us consider how reasonable this assumption is. First of all I am assuming that ISIL leaders are smart and rational men as we have seen of Al Qaeda leaders. Though there are some here who do not believe this the evidence is quite strong. One must wonder why ISIL terrorist have not yet struck on U.S. soil. I believe that they are quite aware of our ability to hunt their leaders down just as we did Al Qaeda. They know the power of our technology and have restrain themselves from making their war personal to us as did Al Qaeda on 9/11. Since 9/11 Al Qaeda has not executed any organized terrorism in the U.S. We have been very efficient in hunting down and killing just about every major Al Qaeda leader responsible for 9/11. Several independent Arabs have attempted terrorism, namely the Boston bombing, but they have acted on their own. Al Qaeda leaders fear our retribution upon themselves so they do not do acts which will get American citizens mad and bring the might of our high-tech weaponry upon them (the leaders). They are less concerned about their followers being killed in battles in the Middle East which is their territory, not ours, so such casualties are expected. In a sense our counter-terrorism of terrorist leaders is an effective deterrent against them repeating a 9/11 event here.
Our Homeland Security is full of holes. If a resourceful and determined terrorist organization wants to destroy a building or bridge or rail system or football stadium or some other notable landmark or event, of which there are many, it is not such a difficult matter, especially if they are willing to die doing it because they do not have to plan an escape. As a free society people can easily travel anywhere in this country. Getting explosives and guns are not all that difficult. Many explosives can be made at home by getting common materials and information from the internet, but for the right price you can buy just about anything or sneak it across the border or shores. So the lack of terrorism here is significant and deliberate. Terrorist leaders fear retaliation by us from personal attacks initiated by them on our homeland. That is not to say that ISIL might not want to do another 9/11 to show the press how powerful they are. But they will do something of far greater magnitude to discourage us from continuing to fight them on their soil or nothing at all. Currently our actions again them have been limited and not of great concern.
That being said, if we were to totally withdraw from the Middle East including not supporting any governments there I am convinced that we have little to fear of terrorism by organized terrorists groups such as ISIL or Al Qaeda. The last thing they want to do is antagonize us so badly that we send troops back to the Middle East and hunt their leaders down. In reality the various warring factions in the Middle East will be quite busy fighting one another for control over territory. No matter how much territory they have they will want even more. And other factions will want to get revenge on other warring factions for killing their family member. The leaders of these warring factions do not fear their neighbors as much as they do our mysterious high-tech drones, spying apparatus, and special forces. These mysterious threat act as effective determinants against them terrorizing us on our homeland.
The bottom line is that we have more to fear from our domestic terrorist than we do from organized Arab terrorist abroad. And if we stay out of the Middle East there will be fewer independent foreign terrorist to worry about since there is nothing to be gained by them terrorizing us. Of course there will always be terrorist and crazy people but not from organized Middle Eastern regions because they (the leaders) have little to gain and everything to lose by getting us, the American people, personally mad at them.
Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself. – Franklin D. Roosevelt at his 1st Inaugural Address